2012 Presidential Election Predictions

Well, I’ve been saying this all along, so it shouldn’t be any surprise, but Obama will win.  Very likely, he will win in such a landslide as the modern age hasn’t ever seen.  This isn’t going to be Bush/Gore, this is going to be a slaughter.

Here’s why I think so.  The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll has some interesting numbers.  Now, keep in mind that this is one poll out of dozens, but the majority all say the same thing*.

Of likely voters in swing states**, Obama claims 94% of the black vote, while Romney gets 0%.  There’s more, but that’s a pretty stunning statement.  Romney has basically lost an entire demographic of likely voters.  Of course, examples from the RNC tend to show what the GOP really thinks of non-white, non-male groups.

The Latino population favors Obama by 2-1.  Finally, Obama has majorities (50+%) in the under 35 group and female voters.  Obviously, there is some overlap here.

Just consider, if there is an approximately equal male/female population in the US, then Obama has the majority vote.  Right there.  Of course, add in male and female blacks and male and female Latinos and that’s a huge leap for Obama.

Romney rules in traditionally conservative areas: whites, seniors, and rural areas, but only the in whites category does Romney have more than 50% of the vote.

Of course, these demographics are entirely meaningless, because the people of the US don’t vote for the president.  The electoral college votes for the president and the people vote for electoral college representatives. A system I truly loathe, not for the least reason is that my vote (nor do any Democrat votes) count in the state of Texas.

This post from Daily Kos describes the poll numbers in the swing states.  By these numbers, Obama is leading in all but two of the 13 swing states.  This combined with the traditional Democratic states is enough to give Obama a huge electoral victory.  Looking at these numbers, it appears that Missouri is firmly in the Romney camp and Obama has locked up New Mexico and Pennsylvania.  The Republicans (Senatorial committee) agree, having moved all their ad money out of New Mexico and into North Dakota, which is a decidedly Republican state.  But there appears to be enough of a challenge from Democrats to make things tight.

Finally, I’ll point out one other thing that has happened and, if it becomes general (this year or the next) could be the death knell for the GOP.  A New Mexico Tea Party candidate got their name on the ballot WITH the Republican candidate.  That means nothing less than a split vote and pretty much assures the Democratic candidate a victory for the New Mexico senate seat.  That split, as far as I am concerned, is the best thing to happen and I hope it becomes general.

The Tea Partiers are (in general) bug-house nuts and they are bringing the conservatives to ruin.  The Republicans must embrace the Tea Partiers or they will lose 15-25% of their base.  Unfortunately, when the rest of the US looks at people like Michelle Bachman, they don’t see a viable candidate, they see someone who is crazy.  The GOP, by being required to embrace these people, are becoming as crazy as they are.

It’s the same thing I’ve talked about before.  The loud people who are willing to do anything to support their point of view are the ones in the public space… not the quiet conservatives who really are the GOP base.

Anyway, so that’s my prediction.  Obama in a landslide and all that Koch Super-PAC money is wasted.  Oh darn.


* There is one poll, that no matter what, says Romney is ahead by 3-5 points.  I’m not sure how they work, but the simple fact that every other poll run this year says the exact opposite doesn’t inspire me with a lot of confidence in their methods.

** Those states that actually decide a national election.  Some states always vote Republican (like Texas, in spite of my best efforts) and some states always vote Democrat (like California).  The states that don’t routinely vote one party are ‘swing states’ and really decide the election.

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2 Responses to 2012 Presidential Election Predictions

  1. williambloom says:

    Interesting! I didn’t consider it in those terms before, but I think you’re right:

    In the long run, the GOP cannot win by embracing the Tea Party (because it pushes them too far into nuts-ville and they become unappealing to moderates) but they also cannot win by rejecting the Tea Party (because then the Tea Party will form a literal third party and split the conservative vote).

    The “big tent” of the GOP has never made sense. Social conservatives, war hawks, and libertarians are NOT natural allies. They all agree that America is a darn tootin’ great county, but they don’t agree on much else. Libertarians despise the government curtailing their personal liberties (which is what social conservatives want government to do more of) and they despise the government getting tangled in foreign affairs (which is what war hawks want government to do more of).

    Like you, I don’t like the electoral college. POTUS should be elected by a straight up nation-wide popular vote. IMO, the electoral college is one of the factors that turns people off from voting. Since the vast majority of us do not live in swing states, voting seems largely pointless.

  2. OgreMkV says:

    Funny that you mention “big tent” because I hadn’t thought of it quite like that.

    The “Big Tent” is term used in another conservative arena… that of creationism. Much like you mention, Young Earth Creationists, Old Earth Creationists, and Intelligent Design advocates are also not natural associates. YEC and OEC are complete opposites and ID rejects both of the other two’s claims.

    The one thing that they have in common is a hatred of science and evolutionary theory.

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